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Bletchley Park, AI & Known Unknowns
The AI Safety Summit this week is a good idea, but an workable AI solution requires knowing what the problem is.
Oct 31, 20233 min read


The Art of Letting Painful Things Go
The parallels are being drawn between the conflict in Israel and the troubles in Northern Ireland. And with good reason.
Oct 30, 20231 min read


Functional Defeat on the Black Sea
Ukraine's ground war is making disappointing but incremental gains. The Battle of the Black Sea is a different story.
Oct 17, 20233 min read


Israel, Iran & The End of Days
What is going on in Israel, why Iran cares, and how much is it going to cost you?
Oct 9, 20235 min read


The 4717 Answers House Questions on Ukraine
The 4717 answers House GOP Questions on Ukraine.
Sep 21, 20232 min read


A Paper Dragon
Peak China happened before the covid lockdowns, can it ever get its fung shui back?
Sep 14, 20234 min read


Another BRIC in the Wall
What can we expect from the BRICS expansion? Not much other than a new name.
Aug 31, 20233 min read


The Man Needed Killin'
The mad death of Yevgeny Prigozhin may not help Putin's grip on power.
Aug 27, 20234 min read


All That Grain
The Black Sea as a wider war zone will drive up prices on grain, oil, ore and insurance.
Aug 15, 20233 min read


The Chinese Armada
Just What Were the Chinese and Russia Navies up to off the Alaskan Coast?
Aug 8, 20233 min read


Russia Won't Attack NATO, but It Might Starve Africa
Russia's Energy Weapon didn't work against NATO, its weaponized grain prices may work on Africa.
Aug 1, 20233 min read


NATO Gets an Ikea
Sweden joins NATO, thwarting Moscows attempts to fracture the West.
Jul 12, 20234 min read


Something Rotten in the State of Russia
What are we to make of the Wagner mutiny? Why do we even care?
Jun 28, 20237 min read


The Chinese Take-Away
China's economy has peaked, what are the take-aways for the US and it's industrial policy?
May 31, 20233 min read


How Strong is the Russian Economy?
Decoupling of the Russian economy won't do more to global markets that it already has. Decoupling of China will be miserable.
May 10, 20234 min read


A New Oil Block
The new deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran will bring stability to the region, but won't do long term energy security and prices any good.
Apr 5, 20234 min read


The China Syndrome
China's reopening is winding up to be the economic story of the year - but it's only February and the red flags are fluttering.
Feb 13, 20234 min read


Death and a Big, Bouncy Ball
Viktor Bout, Merchant of Death, is free. Brittney Griner is too. Paul Whelan is not. He looks to stay that way.
Dec 12, 20223 min read


Some Sort of Fire Drill
Covid Protests in China are more likely to topple the government in Taipei that in Beijing.
Nov 28, 20223 min read


Qatar Flexes its Balls
After securing the World Cup with bribes and hookers, Qatar is using the event for an epic flex. Well played.
Nov 22, 20223 min read
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