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Bletchley Park, AI & Known Unknowns
The AI Safety Summit this week is a good idea, but an workable AI solution requires knowing what the problem is.
Oct 31, 20233 min read


Israel, Iran & The End of Days
What is going on in Israel, why Iran cares, and how much is it going to cost you?
Oct 9, 20235 min read


The 4717 Answers House Questions on Ukraine
The 4717 answers House GOP Questions on Ukraine.
Sep 21, 20232 min read


A Paper Dragon
Peak China happened before the covid lockdowns, can it ever get its fung shui back?
Sep 14, 20234 min read


Another BRIC in the Wall
What can we expect from the BRICS expansion? Not much other than a new name.
Aug 31, 20233 min read


The Chinese Armada
Just What Were the Chinese and Russia Navies up to off the Alaskan Coast?
Aug 8, 20233 min read


That Big Dollar Smile
The dollar may be off, but it isn't that off. And why the late dip is just the pouty part of a big, American grin
Jul 25, 20233 min read


What's with the Groovy Oil Prices?
Energy demand is at a global high, OPEC+ has wildly cut production, and 20% of the supply is under sanctions - so what's up with oil prices?
Jul 6, 20233 min read


The Chinese Take-Away
China's economy has peaked, what are the take-aways for the US and it's industrial policy?
May 31, 20233 min read


The Doomsday Book
What will happen with a US default? Hard to say, but some of the damage is already done.
May 17, 20234 min read


How Strong is the Russian Economy?
Decoupling of the Russian economy won't do more to global markets that it already has. Decoupling of China will be miserable.
May 10, 20234 min read


A New Oil Block
The new deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran will bring stability to the region, but won't do long term energy security and prices any good.
Apr 5, 20234 min read


Nine Month Delivery
After a strong start to the year, investors are hopeful for a rousing 2023. Beware of desperate exuberance.
Feb 15, 20233 min read


The China Syndrome
China's reopening is winding up to be the economic story of the year - but it's only February and the red flags are fluttering.
Feb 13, 20234 min read


Some Sort of Fire Drill
Covid Protests in China are more likely to topple the government in Taipei that in Beijing.
Nov 28, 20223 min read


The Korea Wrinkle
With the world focused on Taiwan, will North Korea start a looming Pacific War? What Game Theory tells us.
Nov 14, 20224 min read


Party On
The outcome of China's 20th Party Congress is no mystery. Xi Jinping's next 5 years are trickier.
Oct 18, 20223 min read


The China Sneeze
The China is facing an economic sneeze that might take down a limping global economy further.
Oct 7, 20223 min read


Cry Havoc!
All wars are economic, but global markets have been mobilized and sent into battle over Ukraine. This is the future of war.
Sep 27, 20223 min read


Whisky Tango Foxtrot: One China
Washington's One China Policy and "strategic ambiguity" explained. Spoiler: It's logically incoherent, but that's by design.
Sep 19, 20223 min read
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