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Chances of miscalculation at the US China Summit are high... and personal.

If you want to look smart, be a pessimist; if you want to be rich, be an optimist.

Tehran has discovered a deep vulnerability at the heart of the global order.

White House luxuriate in unpredictable chaos. Exactly what China’s current entrenched model needs to avoid.

On March 8, around the time that the Swedish navy was impounding its first Russian “shadow fleet” carrier, Britain was considering sending an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. President Trump responded “That’s OK Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer. We don’t need people that join Wars after they’ve already Won!” Creative grammar aside, days later the White House was calling on Britain, along with France, Japan and South Korean – and China - to help the U

A Weekend Thought Experiment I was mooning around a hospital in the sunny Shi’a south of Iraq when a young doctor flagged me down and politely asked why were we - meaning Americans – there. He’d watched us invade his country twice before toppling the government and dismantling all the systems that ran the country. As far as he could tell, he gently explained, there had been no plan for after we’d blown the place up. The poor guy wasn’t even mad, he was just baffled on a cosm

“Iran doesn’t give into pressure – only a lot of pressure.”

This will not be a surgical operation from the A Night in Caracas playbook. From the build up, the US the option for a weeks long siege, should it come to that.

Greenland upstages Davos. Military force is off the table, expect a trade war.

Gunboat Diplomacy is a bad option... there aren't any good ones.

Venezuela, Iran and Belarus walk into a gas station...

This isn't about cocaine... it isn't really about oil.

Is Russia Ready for a NATO War?

One hundred minutes doesn’t seem like a lot of time for the two largest economies - both of who are trying to rewire the economic order – to spend together hashing out a deal.

… and neither is the solution. The thing that has stuck with me the most about being in Benghazi in the aftermath of the 9/11 US mission attacks was watching the euphoria of society after ousting that ball of bad hair Muammar Gaddafi atomize into a civil war as the factions all hustled to get a piece of the action. Power vacuums are like that. That feeling returned last week and I wasn’t able to quite shake in the long 72 hours after the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced

One quote explains Trump's shift on Ukraine

Blindsiding investors with the highest tariffs since the Depression caused them to react like frogs thrown into a boil. And out they leapt, triggering market chaos across stocks, bonds and currencies

What fresh hell...

The president of the DRC makes an intriguing offer to the White House: Minerals for security.

A short explanation of the bond yields that wont cross your eyes.