Forget Milan, the Fireworks are in Tehran
- 4717
- 1 day ago
- 2 min read
Well, let's hope not...
The price of oil has been creeping up all week as Iran and the United States have been meeting in Geneva this week. From $60 p/b in early January to $70 this week; a sure sign that no one really thinks this is going to end well. Donald Trump, while only "indirectly" involved in the talks, said that Iran's leaders would be "very wise" to strike a deal. While sending in largest US build up of military power since the 2003 Invasion of Iraq into the region. Which sounds pretty damned direct.
The 4717 Shot: This will not be a surgical operation from the A Night in Caracas playbook. From the build up, the US the option for a weeks long siege, should it come to that. Both the White House and military leaders are saying that they prefer a diplomatic solution while admitting they they aren’t close to one. Trump has said that he hasn’t decided whether or not the US will launch strikes wrecking nuclear facilities and Olympics closing ceremony ratings. A little more unsettling is the lack of clarity on what, exactly Washington expects to achieve with a strike. Is it an end to Iran’s…
1) nuclear program,
2) ballistic missile threat
3) proxy war/ militia mayhem, or
4) current regime.
Although, accomplishing points one or two will like accomplish point four by shear political gravity. Realizing point four will settle three. At any rate, the US has the advantage, and the wobbling regime Tehran knows it. Still, with some 20 million barrels of crude going through the Strait of Hormuz - about a fifth of global demand – the regime does have a few cards to play. Saudi Arabia, which accounts for about 40% of the Strait traffic, has pipeline to bypass the chokepoint, but most oil traffic in the gulf doesn’t.
If the shooting starts this will likely get messy, and pricey. At that point the best option is for a IRGC coup d’etat – which might would put more practical players in power, but hardly more democratic.
This shot of insight was provided by the 4717.
