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AI Disinformation & Zersetung
It looks like social media is set to be the 8-Track of news media - an innovation not as convenient as advertised and ill-suited for the medium.
Jul 93 min read


Cease-Fire at Will
This isn’t a peace, but setting a pot on simmer. It’s also better than the alternative.
Jul 73 min read


Don't Tear Down that Fence
local stores rarely have the economies of scale required to treat customers like they are being processed out of a refugee camp.
Jun 303 min read


The Confidence Curve is a Trap
We use confidence as a stand-in for competence. And that's a terrible habit.
Jun 244 min read


Asymmetrical War, Asymmetrical Victory
America can keep this asymmetrical wheel spinning much longer than Tehran can. Practically, maybe not.
Jun 123 min read


The Company that Breaks First
Uncertainty is uncomfortable for most people, but for people who rode to the top on a spreadsheet, the discomfort is neurotic.
Jun 33 min read


Second Order Thinking in a First Order World
Second-order thinking is uncomfortable. It forces you to confront tradeoffs your team would rather ignore, but the markets won’t.
May 273 min read


Four Bad Options in Iran
From the Department of Unintended Consequences The possible endgames in Iran are starting to look like a Waffle House menu at 3am: Everything will probably give you heartburn, but booze and hunger make people optimistic. The administration is now using phrases like “degrade capability,” “strategic reset,” and “regional stabilization” for the same reason that CEOs do – use enough syllables and it’s less obvious that you’re pin-wheeling. The assumption is that if sufficient pre
May 214 min read


How to Find Early Adopters and Eccentrics
Don't innovate for average, innovate for typical, and typical is a little weird.
May 203 min read
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