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The lessons you are drawing from those old patterns are less relevant with every new shock to the system.

These shocks have a nasty habit of exposing the problematic signal beneath: Like how a fender bender won’t kill your marriage - unless your mistress is in the passenger seat.

More rational than you think…. The first thing to understand is that technology without human psychology creates, at best, wildly mismanaged efforts. At worst it’s downright dangerous. So my first thought when Dario Amodei announced that 5% of Anthropic stock would go toward a “public benefit fund” was that it sounded like a cross between Trump’s plan to pay every one $5,000 to vote Republican and George Costanza’s Human Fund. Something performative and vague to get through a

… Neither will the Customer Thanks to one war or another, Russian oil is (mostly) off the open global market, Iran’s oil blocked and the other Gulf petro-states are at three quarters the old capacity. And somehow, said dumpster fire is going to present you with a bill. One problem with today’s geopolitical dumpster fire is that launching attack drones at oil tankers is so much more distracting than a turf war between shipping and procurement - which is more likely to blow up

Libya was a terrifying case study on fragile systems that applies as much to the C-Suite as much as it does to geopolitics.

Both Washington and Tehran claim the war will be over soon, as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States look to be settling in for a long siege. They may be on to something.

The China example here isn’t terribly complicated, it’s just enormous. The country’s lopsided industrial overcapacity is at a tipping point that its anemic domestic market can’t absorb.

I’ve never been sold on the idea that theology is a sound basis for foreign policy. In my experience, the Almighty has never been that easy to push around. Your milage may vary.

Iran finally closed the Strait of Hormuz to watch global oil prices climb, but not enough to destroy demand. Now that the spigot has been closed, Iran can’t close it more.