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Why I'm Revisiting Pothole of the Gods
I’ve never been sold on the idea that theology is a sound basis for foreign policy. In my experience, the Almighty has never been that easy to push around. Your milage may vary.
Sep 13 min read


Hormuz is a Vanishing Asset - So Are Sanctions
Iran finally closed the Strait of Hormuz to watch global oil prices climb, but not enough to destroy demand. Now that the spigot has been closed, Iran can’t close it more.
Aug 275 min read


Data Filters, Rational Bandwidth & Iraq
In Iraq, the rule was “watch your back” and the best way to do that was to know something the other cogs didn’t. The result was system paralysis.
Aug 204 min read


Tehran Goes to the Mattresses
Iran's talk of a Hormuz deal is a loud declaration that it is going to the mattresses.
Aug 114 min read


How To Make a Buck of Rogue AI
If the engineers who designed AI can’t control their models, no amount of legislation will either.
Aug 54 min read


AI Disinformation & Zersetung
It looks like social media is set to be the 8-Track of news media - an innovation not as convenient as advertised and ill-suited for the medium.
Jul 93 min read


Cease-Fire at Will
This isn’t a peace, but setting a pot on simmer. It’s also better than the alternative.
Jul 73 min read


Don't Tear Down that Fence
local stores rarely have the economies of scale required to treat customers like they are being processed out of a refugee camp.
Jun 303 min read


The Confidence Curve is a Trap
We use confidence as a stand-in for competence. And that's a terrible habit.
Jun 244 min read
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