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China's Hormuz Calculus
White House luxuriate in unpredictable chaos. Exactly what China’s current entrenched model needs to avoid.
Apr 24 min read


Shahed: The AK47 of the Sky
The AK47 turned every guerrilla group into an army. The drone has given every crackpot militia an air force
Apr 21 min read


Baumol's Cost Disease
Some sectors get relentlessly more productive, and others… don’t. Yet wages tend to rise across the board.
Mar 301 min read


The End of Meta's Beginning
Double whammy verdicts are barely a rounding error for Meta. The knock-ons will be worse.
Mar 273 min read


Persian Chicken
Four weeks into the current war, the regime’s only hope to increase leverage on Washington is to isolate it politically and win the optics war. Which, given the unprovoked nature of the attack and the fact that all our allies hate us, shouldn’t have been too hard. Save for a glaring miscalculation.
Mar 234 min read


THE APOCALYPSE HAS A SUPPLY CHAIN
On March 8, around the time that the Swedish navy was impounding its first Russian “shadow fleet” carrier, Britain was considering sending an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. President Trump responded “That’s OK Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer. We don’t need people that join Wars after they’ve already Won!” Creative grammar aside, days later the White House was calling on Britain, along with France, Japan and South Korean – and China - to help the U
Mar 195 min read


Weekend at Mojtaba’s - on the Hormuz
A Weekend Thought Experiment I was mooning around a hospital in the sunny Shi’a south of Iraq when a young doctor flagged me down and politely asked why were we - meaning Americans – there. He’d watched us invade his country twice before toppling the government and dismantling all the systems that ran the country. As far as he could tell, he gently explained, there had been no plan for after we’d blown the place up. The poor guy wasn’t even mad, he was just baffled on a cosm
Mar 134 min read


The Nightmare Scenario Has Arrived
Oil is up over $100 p/b, stocks are plunging and Iran’s new Supreme Leader bears a striking resemblance to the last guy.
Mar 92 min read


A Coup in Iran
“Iran doesn’t give into pressure – only a lot of pressure.”
Feb 255 min read
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