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A Hard Landing for the US and China?
The world's two largest economies operating on different cycles has been a good thing for the global economy.
Dec 1, 20233 min read


The APEC Forum
The Xi Biden Meeting at the APEC Forum won't accomplish much, but at least they're talking. Or pretending too.
Nov 15, 20231 min read


The Oilmen are Back... for Now
Lifting sanctions on Venezuelan oil will do the country a world of good if its president can behave himself. He can’t.
Nov 13, 20232 min read


Don't Look Down: US Recession in 2024?
The US economy is looking at a recession in 2024 - that isn't going to do Biden, or the world, any favors.
Nov 6, 20233 min read


Bletchley Park, AI & Known Unknowns
The AI Safety Summit this week is a good idea, but an workable AI solution requires knowing what the problem is.
Oct 31, 20233 min read


Four or Five Grim Horsemen
Joe Biden is showing his support for the UAW strike and announcing that he literally can't put two and two together.
Sep 26, 20233 min read


A Paper Dragon
Peak China happened before the covid lockdowns, can it ever get its fung shui back?
Sep 14, 20234 min read


Price Volatility Makes Bad Voodoo
Price volatility is bad voodoo for the economy's upbeat mojo.
Jul 17, 20233 min read


What's with the Groovy Oil Prices?
Energy demand is at a global high, OPEC+ has wildly cut production, and 20% of the supply is under sanctions - so what's up with oil prices?
Jul 6, 20233 min read


The Chinese Take-Away
China's economy has peaked, what are the take-aways for the US and it's industrial policy?
May 31, 20233 min read


The Doomsday Book
What will happen with a US default? Hard to say, but some of the damage is already done.
May 17, 20234 min read


How Strong is the Russian Economy?
Decoupling of the Russian economy won't do more to global markets that it already has. Decoupling of China will be miserable.
May 10, 20234 min read


Guesswork, Almost.
Banking scares go both ways - as deposits and credit disappears. The panic was the sound of something breaking.
Mar 23, 20232 min read


Nine Month Delivery
After a strong start to the year, investors are hopeful for a rousing 2023. Beware of desperate exuberance.
Feb 15, 20233 min read


The China Syndrome
China's reopening is winding up to be the economic story of the year - but it's only February and the red flags are fluttering.
Feb 13, 20234 min read


An Inquiry into What in the Hell We Plan to do About Our Maxxed-out Uncle Sam
The Government has maxed-out its credit, but won't stop spending. Default looms and zaniness ensues.
Jan 25, 20237 min read


Davos Attendees Split on Economic Outlook, Sno-Bunnies.
Dispatch from the bar at the World Economic Forum in Davos: The end ins't ending, just confused.
Jan 19, 20233 min read


Well, That Sucked...
2022 was the worst year for stocks since 2008, and the worst of bonds, ever. Crypto was a mighty train wreck. Happy New Year.
Jan 4, 20234 min read


Notes from a Mid-Term Hangover
The biggest mid-term turnout in American history, with red waves and democracy on the ballot , has produced...not much.
Nov 9, 20222 min read


That 70's Show
What is causing this double-knit, flared inflation?
Oct 26, 20223 min read
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