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Pothole was published a year before what future historians may well mark as the start of World War III. Like the first world war, this conflict will have its aspects of jihad,

Tehran has discovered a deep vulnerability at the heart of the global order.

White House luxuriate in unpredictable chaos. Exactly what China’s current entrenched model needs to avoid.

Double whammy verdicts are barely a rounding error for Meta. The knock-ons will be worse.

Four weeks into the current war, the regime’s only hope to increase leverage on Washington is to isolate it politically and win the optics war. Which, given the unprovoked nature of the attack and the fact that all our allies hate us, shouldn’t have been too hard. Save for a glaring miscalculation.

On March 8, around the time that the Swedish navy was impounding its first Russian “shadow fleet” carrier, Britain was considering sending an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. President Trump responded “That’s OK Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer. We don’t need people that join Wars after they’ve already Won!” Creative grammar aside, days later the White House was calling on Britain, along with France, Japan and South Korean – and China - to help the U

A Weekend Thought Experiment I was mooning around a hospital in the sunny Shi’a south of Iraq when a young doctor flagged me down and politely asked why were we - meaning Americans – there. He’d watched us invade his country twice before toppling the government and dismantling all the systems that ran the country. As far as he could tell, he gently explained, there had been no plan for after  we’d blown the place up. The poor guy wasn’t even mad, he was just baffled on a cosm

“Iran doesn’t give into pressure – only a lot of pressure.”

Greenland upstages Davos. Military force is off the table, expect a trade war.

Why the White House really wants Greenland, and what is will cost you

The Oil Weapon has been fired, it didn't work...

Gunboat Diplomacy is a bad option... there aren't any good ones.

The best way to hack trust is honesty. Ironically, that means it’s not a hack.

This isn't about cocaine... it isn't really about oil.

Bitcoin had one job. It's failing. AI is here in all its hype and glory,  triggering nationalism and trade wars. It. Is generating a hell of a lot of revenue and epic stock prices , but not a lot of ROI on AI investment. Build-out costs are soaring and the sector’s circular financing  is nothing if not interesting. There is naturally a wall of talk about an AI bubble… but not yet. Buried in the chatter, though, is the long, quiet slide of crypto the precise moment it should h

It might be a small world after all... The most glaring feature of the post-World War II order was the free flow of money and capital across the borders of the free world increased both production and consumption to pull more people out of poverty than during human history. When the USSR collapsed, the experiment was scaled to the entire planet. By the turn of the century, communication was so open that I once got an email from London at may desk in Memphis faster than one co

One hundred minutes doesn’t seem like a lot of time for the two largest economies - both of who are trying to rewire the economic order – to spend together hashing out a deal.

Sam Altman, Mel Brooks and Comic Timing The number that stuck in my head the other week while chewing on massive OpenAI mega-deal with AMD  - or any of the other OpenAI + Insert Tech Giant Here  deal – was an almost quaint $13 billion. Not the $78bn in AMD’s MI450 chips, or the warrants on 160 million AMD shares that OpenAI is getting in return (roughly 10% of the company). It isn’t even the 40% pop in share price for the chipmaker. If all goes according to hype, AMD’s stock

… and neither is the solution. The thing that has stuck with me the most about being in Benghazi in the aftermath of the 9/11 US mission attacks was watching the euphoria of society after ousting that ball of bad hair Muammar Gaddafi atomize into a civil war as the factions all hustled to get a piece of the action. Power vacuums are like that. That feeling returned last week and I wasn’t able to quite shake in the long 72 hours after the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced

One quote explains Trump's shift on Ukraine