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Greenland: Why and How Much?
Why the White House really wants Greenland, and what is will cost you
3 days ago3 min read


The Oil Weapon Has Been Fired
The Oil Weapon has been fired, it didn't work...
7 days ago3 min read


Gunboat Diplomacy
Gunboat Diplomacy is a bad option... there aren't any good ones.
Jan 53 min read


I Don't Care About Your Feelings
The best way to hack trust is honesty. Ironically, that means it’s not a hack.
Dec 17, 20252 min read


WTF: Venezuela
This isn't about cocaine... it isn't really about oil.
Dec 4, 20254 min read


The Forgotten Bubble
Bitcoin had one job. It's failing. AI is here in all its hype and glory, triggering nationalism and trade wars. It. Is generating a hell of a lot of revenue and epic stock prices , but not a lot of ROI on AI investment. Build-out costs are soaring and the sector’s circular financing is nothing if not interesting. There is naturally a wall of talk about an AI bubble… but not yet. Buried in the chatter, though, is the long, quiet slide of crypto the precise moment it should h
Nov 26, 20254 min read


AI Sovereignty is AI Decoupling
It might be a small world after all... The most glaring feature of the post-World War II order was the free flow of money and capital across the borders of the free world increased both production and consumption to pull more people out of poverty than during human history. When the USSR collapsed, the experiment was scaled to the entire planet. By the turn of the century, communication was so open that I once got an email from London at may desk in Memphis faster than one co
Nov 12, 20255 min read


China v US Trade Talks...
One hundred minutes doesn’t seem like a lot of time for the two largest economies - both of who are trying to rewire the economic order – to spend together hashing out a deal.
Oct 31, 20253 min read


Circle Twerk
Sam Altman, Mel Brooks and Comic Timing The number that stuck in my head the other week while chewing on massive OpenAI mega-deal with AMD - or any of the other OpenAI + Insert Tech Giant Here deal – was an almost quaint $13 billion. Not the $78bn in AMD’s MI450 chips, or the warrants on 160 million AMD shares that OpenAI is getting in return (roughly 10% of the company). It isn’t even the 40% pop in share price for the chipmaker. If all goes according to hype, AMD’s stock
Oct 21, 20254 min read


The Danger to the Gaza Cease-Fire Isn’t Where You Think
… and neither is the solution. The thing that has stuck with me the most about being in Benghazi in the aftermath of the 9/11 US mission attacks was watching the euphoria of society after ousting that ball of bad hair Muammar Gaddafi atomize into a civil war as the factions all hustled to get a piece of the action. Power vacuums are like that. That feeling returned last week and I wasn’t able to quite shake in the long 72 hours after the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced
Oct 16, 20254 min read


One Quote Explains Washington’s Shift on Ukraine
One quote explains Trump's shift on Ukraine
Sep 24, 20253 min read


China, Nvidia & Your 401(k)
China doesn't need to bankrupt Nvidia, only to burst the perception of unlimited growth.
Sep 17, 20254 min read


Putin's NATO Poland Gamble
What is Putin testing with his NATO gamble in Poland?
Sep 12, 20255 min read


Ukraine's Remarkable Advances
... And why it may not do them any good. It’s hard to blame bad outcomes on bad cheerleading - but the defenders of Ukraine just may have...
Sep 11, 20253 min read


Too Much Noise Brings Down the House
Don't worry about a September market slump, its the noise around the markets that will sink the ship.
Sep 3, 20254 min read


CIA Blows a Coup in Greenland
The operation has the CIA's prints all over it - especially getting blown in the first hour.
Aug 28, 20254 min read


The Long and the Short
Dollar is down 10%, the bouncy S&P500 up the same. Do you go long or short on America these days?
Aug 20, 20253 min read


Empire by Invitation
United States is badly over-stretched in mission, manpower and budget. And like anyone overextended in commitments, time and money, US foreign policy must prioritize.
Aug 19, 20256 min read
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