Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs

At least he didn't follow through on his threat to pave the Rose Garden...

The prolonged theatrics of Liberation Day alone should warrant it as one of the more asinine stunts in the history of the White House - halfway between pardoning a turkey and the Bay of Pigs. A lot of trade domestic and international was on pause for the big reveal: A mix of a 10% across the board levies combined with country-by-country reciprocal tariffs for a weighted-average rate of 24%, according to Evercore ISI,up from around 2% last year.

The bright side being that some of the uncertainty has been cleared up for now. US stock futures slumped and the dollar slid in overnight trading. Even the White House has predicted short term “pain” ahead. A few days ago, Goldman Sachs upped its chance of US recession from 20% to 35% - which is better than even that while growth will slow, but won’t contract. Moody’s put the chance of recession as “inevitable” if the tariffs remain in place.

The 4717 shot #1: Our estimation is that there is method behind the madness. If we are looking at a recession, the White House needs it to happen sooner rather than later. The average duration of US recessions since World War II has been 10 months. If that happens by June, the chances are fair for a recovery by April of 2026 - a solid six months before mid-term elections. This “let the laxative run its course before you climb into a wedding dress” stratagem makes a certain degree of sense, but it’s hardly fool-proof.

If the timing is wrong and momentum carries the economy forward only to tip into recession next year, then the mid-terms start to look pretty “blue” - certainly with the heat GOP representatives are getting over DOGE cuts in their districts. You don’t need to flip too many house seats before impeachment raises its ugly head, or too many senators before one might be adjudicated.

The 4717 Shot #2: Anytime you take on the world, you introduce a lot of uncontrollable variables and learn, quickly, how much leverage you actually have. The 12 member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-pacific Partnership (CPTPP) - a US brain child that the White House ultimately vetoed - sucks up 22% of global imports, add in the tightly aligned EU and global share of imports jumps to 34%. More than Chinese and American import markets combined. The bloc hasn’t afraid to slap China with tariffs, and probably won’t be afraid to do the same to the US, diminishing US exports from reciprocal tariffs. The US currently has a trade surplus in services - digital, banking, legal – and that appears to be where the EU will focus its response. Which will hit US Big Tech that has been driving those fat market returns.

If the 4717 has a rock in the sock, it’s that we like to put things in context. The proliferation of nukes, especially those fitted on the end of a hypersonic missile may be the end of the world, but Trump’s trade war won’t be. True, as the global market fractures and contracts, everything will be both more scarce and expensive. Those caught in the cross-hairs between bottomless US demand and relentless Chinese overproduction aren’t even trying to salvage the old order but trying to forge a new one on the fly. Where the US fits into that order is another question.