Shahed: The AK47 of the Sky

The United States and Isreal have - again - achieved near total air superiority over Iran but drones are another matter. It was a “Kamikaze” Shahed drone – not a ballistic missile - that stuck a base in Kuwait, killing six US servicemen. Iran has launched some 2,000 low-cost drones across military, civilian and commercial targets since the start of fighting last week. Tehran’s “total war” saturation strategy was likely intended to terrorize the Arab street into pressuring governments into pushing back against the US. For the time being, the tactic seems to have backfired.

The 4717 Shot: Like the humble AK-47, introduced in the 1950s, cheap drone technology that has been honed on the battlefields of Ukraine have leveled calculus of asymmetrical warfare. Nuclear weapons are useful on a national level, and truly only if you never use them. To actually hit the button isn’t to win, but to burn the whole thing down. Barring that, drones level the firepower between rouge states, terrorists, freedom fighters and even superpowers. The US is now producing Shahed knock-offs called LUCAS - Low-cost Un-Crewed Attack System – to answer the threat.

Here is where the calculus shifts back to the asymmetrical: production power. Per US Military sources, the rate of fire has slowed 83% since the first day of fighting, the rate of fire for ballistic missiles down 90%. While there is no telling how many drones Iran has stockpiled - with the sea lanes gummed up - it will be hard to make more. The US, however, is just getting started.