Information is everywhere, Insight is priceless
The world is mad and it moves fast.
Stay on top with a flight of quick insights
Shots last updated 29 April 2025
No one really knows what the hell is going on. Our advice is to just embrace it.
Richard Murff
President Economists are baffled that surveys of consumer confidence are largely in the dumpster while the entire country is still spending like the dickens. What is even more curious is that the disconnect between spending and consumer sentiment has been going on for a solid three years. The only difference now is who thinks we’re in the dumpster: now it’s the Democrats.
The 4717 shot: What these surveys may prove is the old advertising adage (credited to David Ogilvy, but who knows) “The trouble with market research is that people don’t think what they feel, don't say what they think and they don't do what they say.” Which is true enough, but don't rule out that most Americans don't know anything about economics. To wit: a report by Lending Tree showed that 25% of Americans are using Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) to finance groceries, and 41% of users have missed a payment in the last year. Which can’t be a good sign if you are financing dinner. On the other hand some 60% of the boobs at Coachella used BNPL to get in.​
The housing numbers are pretty dismal too. The Wall Street Journal reckons that home sales fell 5.9% in March, the largest drop since November of 2022 - which really doesn't tell us much coming so soon after the Covid housing whiplash. It is the slowest pace for home sales in March since 2009 - in the depths of the financial crisis, which tells us rather more.
The Where the world is on that slippery Ukrainian peace really depends on where you are getting your information. If you are at a Papal funeral, where Trump and Zelensky shared an obviously staged photo-op, and both said progress was being made neither seems to have recalled the same conversation; or you get your information from the Russia foreign minister on Face the Nation, where he appeared unaware that Ukraine is really a pressing issue at all.
The 4717 shot: So what are we to make of that? It helps to put it in context: On the Pacific front, the White House is claiming progress on trade talks that Beijing seems to know nothing about. So basically, no one knows anything. Like the aforementioned economic surveys, everyone is lying. The difference is that these guys know that they’re lying.
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What we do know is that the Russia army is larger than it was at the start of the war, the Finns are scared pants-less and German defense spending is up by 80% since 2020 and arms manufacturer Rheinmetall planning to raise its dividend this year by 42%.
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After loosing some 15 government contracts to DOGE, IBM plans $150bn in US investment in the next five years - $30bn in Quantum computing research.This follows pledges by Nvidia and Apple - also smarting in the late chaos, to make similar investments.
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The Iranian government is still mum on the cause of a massive explosion at the Port of Bandar Abbas that killed 65 and injured better than a thousand.
The 4717 shot: After making some calls, we offer an entirely speculative (and very likely scenario). Someone was handling solid fuel used for Iran’s ballistic missiles badly. The shipment arrived in late February and was still in port. This is more or less what happened (with fertilizer) in Beirut in 2020. We can’t stress this enough, you really need to store this stuff properly.
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Mutually Assured Bankruptcy
Trade Deficit Insight
With tariffs dominating the headlines. The 4717’s Richard Murff explains why this blunt instrument does little to address the underlying fear: the trade balance… and why a trade deficit isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
