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Shots last updated 17 April 2025
My daughter was the only person I knew to check out the make of an airplane before booking a ticket - until I found myself on a 737 Max by Boeing and thought to myself: “That sounds familiar.” Fortunately that pesky panel stayed put, but Boeing may be looking at another blow-out. Still in a sign of the times, United Airlines took the unusual step of issuing two 2025 forecasts - like a choose your own adventure book. - one rosy if the economy stays stable and the other thorny is the US drifts into a recession.
Richard Murff
Two bad options...
If you were flummoxed about the trade more, you're in good company. So is Fed Chair Jay Powell. He’s predicting a "strong likelihood" of both higher prices and unemployment. Which gives the man two thorny options. He has hinted that he’ll tack towards that 2% inflation goal first, which makes sense, as unemployment is pretty low. And AI is working on taking your job anyway. For his part, Trump tweeted (whatever we’re calling it) that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”and that the man “is always TOO LATE AND WRONG”
Just don't look...
Still, the NASDAQ had a lively slide that ended 3.1% lower, and the S&P500 down 2.2%. Nvidia, which is actively trying to steal your job, really got it’s pants pulled down when the world learned that it’s H20 AI semiconductor - the one designed for the last sanctions - will require a license to sell to China… which it won’t get. The company took a $5.5bn charge off, its stock slid 7%. But they are still in the game: pledging $500bn in AI infrastructure build out in the US. Good news for the Dutch manufacturer ASML – makes the machines that makes the chips– which that reported Q1 orders fell short.
Boeing's bad year...
Saudi Arabia has offered to repay Syria’s past due $15mm balance to the World Bank, so it will qualify for more reconstruction loans. This is on the heels of the Qatari offer to supply gas to what’s left of the country’s electricity grid via Jordan. It’s a little grim, but the only way to sort the unsortable Middle East is to leave them alone to sort it themselves. It also frees up more of your tax dollars that a full-frontal DOGE assault.
The 4717 shot: While Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States once sought economic and regime stability, they are now seeking to reshape the wider region in their image – wealthy, stable and confident. And they’d rather to that without Shi’a Iran running around stirring the pot with minorities around the neighborhood. Assuming the money comes with a quid pro quo - and it always does - this pretty much cripples Iran’s weapons and cash pipeline through Syria to Lebanon and, to a lesser extent, Gaza. It also may contain Israel’s more expansive tendencies in both, as well as buffers in Syria. Get the Gulf States to manage the check book for the Palestinians in West Bank and Gaza and they might turn into Dubai. They won’t, but think they might, and that alone will keep most of the crazies in check.
A little less blob...
On that note… An internal White House memo has suggested cutting the State Department nearly by half. We’ll be the first to admit that “the blob” – as it is affectionately known – could do with some trimming up, but 50% may be overeating the pudding. Coming as it does along side another memo ordering a national security probe to study slapping more tariff’s on critical minerals.
The 4717 shot: The rub here is that the extraction of these minerals isn’t a manufacturing question. It’s a geographic lottery won back when the earth was cooling. If a mineral isn’t found in America, or a free-trade partner (remember them?), tariffs won’t change that. The best tack is then to secure supplies and access on the widest possible footprint. Which will require at least a few well-meaning goons at State. At least they can’t blame AI for losing those jobs.
Someone's making money...
Goldman Sachs beat Q1 expectations as traders rode the market madness, posting profits of $4.7bn. Its equities posting record quarter revenues up 27% up on the first three months of 2024. On Friday its rivals, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, also reported strong results. To explain how this happens, we give you Leo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey and cocaine.
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Mutually Assured Bankruptcy
Trade Deficit Insight
With tariffs dominating the headlines. The 4717’s Richard Murff explains why this blunt instrument does little to address the underlying fear: the trade balance… and why a trade deficit isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
